Iran looks to Russia and China for help as Israeli intelligence closely monitors Tehran’s efforts.
Yaakov Lappin
(JNS)
Israel’s successful military campaign against Iran has dealt a devastating blow to all aspects of Tehran’s nuclear program, setting it back by years, according to the Israeli military intelligence assessment.
The comprehensive strikes targeted not only nuclear facilities but the entire “puzzle” of the program, including its top scientists, research archives, production of centrifuges and enrichment facilities.
Now, Israel’s intelligence community is closely monitoring Tehran’s efforts to turn to Russia and China for help in rebuilding the nuclear program, though it remains unclear whether Iran will take any steps soon that would risk further Israeli action.
Speaking on a June 30 webinar held by the Washington D.C.-based Jewish Institute for National Security of America, IDF Spokesperson Brig. Gen. Effie Defrin detailed the systemic nature of the Israeli strikes. He explained that the operation was designed to dismantle every component of the nuclear program to ensure a long-term setback.
“It’s a whole picture. You have to look at it holistically,” Defrin said. “The scientific know-how. We killed their scientists. The top tier of their scientists, most of them over 60 years old. They don’t have any substitutes. There is no one to replace them. It will take them years to build this capacity again.”
Describing the Iranian network as” a vast nuclear program,” Deffrin said Israel had destroyed the Iranian facilities in “a few different places,” including the nuclear site at Isfahan, where centrifuges were produced, the uranium enrichment facility in Natanz and the Arak plant where plutonium was produced.
Based on the comprehensive damage assessment, Defrin provided the official Israeli estimate for an Iranian recovery timeline.
“Our military experts, also our intelligence experts from different organizations, assess that it will take more than two years to rebuild it again,” he stated. He added that while the damage to the Fordow and Isfahan sites from the preceding U.S. strikes was “severely damaged,” the full extent is still being assessed.
Defrin also noted the severe degradation of Iran’s conventional capabilities, stating that Israel had dismantled or rendered inoperable two-thirds of Iran’s surface-to-surface missile launchers and had destroyed the entire production chain for those missiles.
He described how the initial preemptive strike on June 13 left the Iranian regime “shocked,” delaying their first retaliatory salvo by a full day. “The fact that the Israeli Air Force could move freely over the skies of Tehran and west Iran … not only our airplanes, but also our UAVs [unmanned aerial vehicles] in big numbers. I think they know it now,” he said. “They are rushing to find solutions in Russia and China and other places, and we are following them.”
Eyal Pinko, a researcher at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies at Bar-Ilan University, and a former Israeli Navy and intelligence officer, told JNS that he assessed that the combined U.S.-Israeli airstrikes have set Iran’s nuclear program back by “several years.” He explained that Iran’s core strategy since the 1980s has been one of “self-reliance,” based on acquiring foreign knowledge and then using it to build domestic capabilities.
“I am convinced that mainly the Chinese and North Koreans will help them,” Pinko said. “There is no doubt there will be help there, but it will take them many, many years to return to the military nuclear [program]. And yet, we also saw that on Saturday [June 14], immediately after the trouble started, the Pakistanis jumped on the bandwagon and told them, ‘‘We are going to transfer 750 missiles to you and help you.’”
Pinko said that a dangerous axis—“mainly Pakistan, North Korea and China—have the will to help the Iranians reach nuclear capability,” adding, “There is ability; there is a will.”
At the same time, Israel has made it publicly clear that it has every intention of closely monitoring Iran’s future force build-up and intervening again militarily, if necessary.
Defrin noted that Israel has “many more targets” in Iran, including economic and Iranian regime leadership targets, that have yet to be struck. He expressed doubt that Iran will take the risk of attracting new Israeli strikes by attempting to rebuild anytime soon.
Jason Brodsky, policy director of the nonpartisan United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) organization, stated that while Iran is theoretically capable of rebuilding, “it will take time and financial resources to do so when it is under sanctions. That will be difficult.”
He pointed to a key diplomatic tool available to the West. “There is the distinct possibility of the E3 [Britain, France and Germany] invoking the U.N. snapback sanctions mechanism in October,” Brodsky told JNS.
“This will reinstate an arms embargo and limitations on Iran’s missile program that have since lapsed. These international restrictions will complicate any foreign transfers to Iran as it seeks to rebuild after the war,” he added.
Regarding Russia’s role, Brodsky was skeptical of a major shift. “Russia has already been assisting Iran with its nuclear program. So I expect that cooperation to continue apace,” he stated, adding, “I do not believe there will be an immediate qualitative change in Russia’s nuclear assistance to Iran after the war, as Moscow has not even delivered on sending long-promised fighter jets to Iran.”
Brodsky argued that the United States and its allies should bolster their own national sanctions, designate third countries interested in supplying Iran and “undertake covert action to disrupt supply chains.”
Additional questions remain regarding Iran’s ability to continue to sell large quantities of oil to China.
Beijing’s sustained purchase of sanctioned Iranian oil provides a critical economic lifeline to Tehran and a source of discounted energy for Beijing. This trade is facilitated by a sophisticated and resilient sanctions-evasion architecture, including a “dark fleet” of tankers and non-dollar financial channels.
China is the primary buyer of Iranian oil, absorbing an estimated 89% to 91% of Tehran’s total crude exports. These purchases represent a significant portion of China’s energy mix, accounting for approximately 13.6% to 14% of its total crude oil acquisitions.
Russia’s war in Ukraine, meanwhile, forged a major military dependency on Iran for unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), ballistic missiles and ammunition.
Image: IDF Spokesperson Brig. Gen. Effie Defrin gives a press briefing on June 17, 2025. Credit: IDF.
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