Jewish TV Channel has examined an intelligence report from the US Government which was declassified only weeks before the current Ukraine war. The opening statement is a summary of expectations from Russia.
“We expect that Moscow will remain an influential power and a formidable challenge to the United States amidst the changing geopolitical landscape during the next decade. It will continue to pursue its interests in competitive and sometimes confrontational and provocative ways, including pressing to dominate Ukraine and other countries in its “near-abroad,” while exploring possibilities to achieve a more stable relationship with Washington.”
The report continues to investigate Russian motivations and its own assessment in relation to the USA.
- We assess that Russia does not want a direct conflict with U.S. forces. Russia seeks an accommodation with the United States on mutual noninterference in both countries’ domestic affairs and U.S. recognition of Russia’s claimed sphere of influence over much of the former Soviet Union.
- Russia’s officials have long believed that the United States is trying to undermine Russia, weaken President Vladimir Putin, and install Western-friendly regimes in the former Soviet states and elsewhere, which they conclude gives Russia leeway to retaliate.
The document then describes with chilling accuracy how events could play out and pertinently how the NATO card could factor into the equation.
Russia continues to prepare for a military attack against Ukraine, with well over 100,000 troops massed near the Ukraine border, including Russian military forces in Belarus, occupied-Crimea, and the separatist forces in Eastern Ukraine. Moscow is sending more forces. In mid-December 2021, Russia issued a statement demanding that NATO provide formal security guarantees, including putting an end to the possibility that Ukraine might join the Alliance.
This document raises disturbing questions, above all, could war have been prevented at an earlier stage based on the assessment that Russia was opposed to Ukraines’ attempts to join NATO, specially in light of the intelligence assessment that Russia was seen as being defensive against western ambitions against the country? There is no denying the horrific and brutal onslaught of the Russian armed forces, and the deception activities surround it. Still, the question remains if a less belligerent approach to Ukraines’ desire to join NATO might have led to the USA assessment about Russia wanting to maintain better relations with the west might have avoided the conflagration.